by Diane V. McLoughlin, mcloughlinpost.com
May 20th, 2012
According to the latest from Lemon Global News, Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul is closing in fast on competitor Mitt Romney. Here are their current delegate-count estimates, as above:
Column 1, scenario one: An estimate based on the assumption
that Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, candidates
who have withdrawn from the leadership race, both refuse to release
their delegates. (Released delegates would be able to vote for either
of the two remaining candidates at the Republican National Convention.
Where: Tampa, Florida. When: August, 2012.) Under this scenario,
as of May 20th, 2012, Romney is estimated to have 815 delegates to Paul's 676.
Column 2, scenario two: Gingrich releases his delegates but Santorum does not. May
20th delegate count: Romney 834 delegates; Paul 681.
Column 3, scenario three: Santorum and Gingrich both release their delegates. May 20th delegate count: Romney 895; Paul 764.
While Lemon Global News cautions that it is impossible to ever achieve a complete count - which is absolutely true, for several practical reasons - theirs is still far and away more accurate than that supplied to the mainstream media by the Associated Press.
If they rectify this, I will be the happiest of independent political writers to share the news with my readers. But, to-date, the AP refuses to update their numbers based on the final results of state-wide conventions.
From precinct, to county and ultimately to state-wide elections, the latter of these are the only numbers that count in this electoral winnowing process.
AP journalists do stellar work. That the AP delegate count is the gospel for most major
publications, and the fact that it is entirely wrong, is a severe blot
on AP's record. It is also, needless to say, damaging to the records of the many news organizations who are using their numbers; publications such as
The Huffington Post and, if I recall correctly, The New York Times.
Click to view Huff Post's AP-based electoral map, and one can peruse the egregious errors. Ron Paul has definitively won states such as Maine, Iowa,
Minnesota and Nevada. Wand a cursor over these states and the dates for final results, as well as the results themselves, are a mile out.
By my own count, totting up other reports, Ron Paul garnered 59 delegates just this weekend alone. He has had amazing showings in some states - cleaning
house in Minnesota and reportedly taking every single delegate in Maine. However, it is also true that Ron Paul has done poorly in other states.
What it boils down to is a far more exciting horse race than most people realize. This should come as a shock to the average voter, given the appalling reporting
in much, although not all, of the mainstream press.
Hat tip to Lemon Global News.
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Copyright 2012, Diane V. McLoughlin, All Rights Reserved.